Nigeria’s economic story is often narrated in charts, ratios, and forecasts, yet it is ultimately lived in kitchens, markets, motor parks, and workshops across the country. The true measure of reform is not how elegant the policy sounds but how convincingly it can be explained to the Nigerian on the street—and how clearly that Nigerian can see himself as a partner in growth rather than a victim of adjustment. In this regard, the current phase of reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the disciplined stewardship of the Central Bank of Nigeria led by Governor Olayemi Cardoso mark a decisive break from Nigeria’s past and a credible bridge to a more stable, inclusive future.
When this administration assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria stood at the edge of a fiscal and monetary precipice. Debt service consumed almost all federally generated revenue, fuel subsidies drained trillions while enriching a narrow cartel, multiple exchange rates rewarded arbitrage over productivity, and inflation steadily hollowed out household incomes. These were not abstract policy failures; they were daily humiliations experienced as scarcity, unpredictability, and declining purchasing power. The Renewed Hope Agenda responded with reforms that were necessarily bold and, at times, painful, because delay would have turned fragility into collapse. The removal of fuel subsidy ended a decades-long hemorrhage. The unification and liberalization of the foreign exchange market dismantled a system that privileged insiders. Fiscal discipline curtailed quasi-fiscal excesses. Yet none of these could endure without a central bank willing to restore credibility to the monetary anchor.
Governor Cardoso’s arrival at the CBN in late 2023 provided that anchor. His distinguishing feature has been method rather than drama: a return to orthodox monetary policy, respect for market signals, and institutional rebuilding. With extensive private-sector banking experience and a record of public-sector reform, he made price stability the unambiguous priority. Excessive deficit financing that blurred fiscal and monetary boundaries was curtailed. Policy decisions became data-driven and predictable. Communication improved. In an economy long accustomed to improvisation, this quiet discipline was itself transformative.
The results, by early 2026, are visible in the fundamentals. Inflation, after peaking amid adjustment shocks, entered a sustained decline through late 2025, supported by tight monetary policy, FX stabilization, and improved supply conditions. External reserves were rebuilt to robust levels, the FX backlog was cleared, and the naira found firmer footing under a transparent, market-driven framework. Investor confidence returned gradually but decisively, reflected in improved outlooks, increased capital inflows, and Nigeria’s exit from international grey lists. These outcomes are not trophies for technocrats; they are the conditions that make everyday economic life predictable again.
To explain this to the common Nigerian requires honesty and simplicity. Stability, first, protects your money. Inflation is a silent tax that punishes the poor most severely. When inflation falls, wages and savings stop evaporating at the till. Tight monetary policy may feel harsh in the short term, but it prevents the far greater cruelty of runaway prices. A single, transparent FX rate, second, restores fairness. When there are no privileged windows, honest exporters, importers, and service providers can plan and compete on equal terms. Reserves, third, are national insurance. A country with buffers can absorb global shocks without panic measures that spike prices of food, fuel, and transport. Discipline, finally, creates jobs. When government borrowing is restrained, credit flows back to productive enterprises. Record disbursements to businesses and SMEs in 2025 were an early sign of this transmission to the real economy.
None of this denies the hardship of transition. Currency adjustment raised the cost of imports; subsidy removal increased transport fares; households felt the squeeze. A serious reform agenda does not dismiss this pain. Rather, it pairs stabilization with social protection and a clear path to relief. The administration’s framing of 2026 as a year focused on families and social development reflects this understanding. As inflation eases and domestic production scales, relief becomes durable rather than cosmetic. Farmers respond to clearer price signals; manufacturers invest with greater certainty; logistics improve as infrastructure spending becomes more efficient. Over time, productivity gains allow wages to catch up, converting stability into shared prosperity.
This approach stands in contrast to earlier periods when heavy-handed interventions blurred accountability and undermined confidence. Under previous leadership—most notably Godwin Emefiele—the expansion of quasi-fiscal programs complicated inflation control and distorted incentives. The lesson is institutional rather than personal. Central banks earn trust by doing fewer things well and by resisting the temptation to substitute administrative controls for market discipline. Cardoso’s restraint, including his caution against excessive foreign borrowing and the illusion that foreign direct investment alone can deliver transformation, has preserved policy space and economic sovereignty.
The deeper promise of this moment lies in mobilizing Nigeria’s own capital. Sustainable growth cannot be outsourced. Pension funds, insurance pools, diaspora remittances, and informal savings constitute a vast reservoir waiting to be channeled into productive investment. By deepening capital markets, modernizing payments, and strengthening regulation, the CBN is helping convert savings into infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and digital capacity. When Nigerians invest in Nigeria, returns circulate locally, skills compound, and resilience increases. This is how the common man becomes a stakeholder, not merely a spectator.
Recruiting Nigerians as partners in growth therefore depends on a simple, empowering message: your savings matter, your enterprise matters, your compliance matters. A stable economy rewards patience and honesty. It makes long-term planning rational again. It reduces the premium on speculation and raises the returns to work and innovation. Orthodoxy, in this sense, is not an elite obsession; it is the foundation of a fair economy.
Looking ahead, the task is consolidation with compassion. Growth is projected to strengthen in 2026, inflation to ease further, and diversification to deepen. The path to a trillion-dollar economy is not a sprint but a sequence of disciplined steps. The commitment not to reverse core reforms—fuel subsidy removal, FX liberalization, and fiscal discipline—is essential to credibility. Governor Cardoso’s continuing challenge will be to manage liquidity prudently, coordinate effectively with fiscal authorities, and communicate transparently so expectations remain anchored. Expectations shape behavior; behavior shapes outcomes.
In sum, the performance of the current CBN leadership deserves commendation not because it promises miracles but because it restores normalcy. Coupled with the President’s bold structural reforms, it has shifted Nigeria from distortion to discipline, from opacity to transparency, and from fragility to resilience. The benefits are emerging—unevenly, yes, but unmistakably. To the Nigerian on the street, the invitation is clear: understand the reforms, endure the transition, and participate in the rebuilding. Stability is the soil in which jobs grow, credibility is the currency of progress, and shared prosperity is the reward of patience and partnership.
How Central Bank Reforms Are Turning Painful Adjustments into Stability and Shared Growth By Clem Aguiyi ESQ
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